For the past few years, conversations about artificial intelligence and employment have largely been dominated by one question: How many jobs will AI take?
But new modelling from EY offers a more encouraging perspective for Australian businesses and workers.
As reported by the Australian Financial Review, EY estimates that AI could add between $95 billion and $116 billion to the Australian economy over the next decade, equivalent to around 2.6 to 3.2 per cent of GDP. More importantly from an employment perspective, the modelling forecasts a net gain of around 44,000 jobs over the same period.
That doesn’t mean AI won’t eliminate some roles. It will. Certain highly automated, capital-intensive industries, including parts of mining and agriculture, are expected to require fewer workers as technology takes over more tasks.
But the bigger story is what happens alongside that displacement.
The jobs created by AI may be very different from the jobs it replaces
EY’s modelling suggests some of the biggest employment gains will occur in sectors that benefit from increased investment and economic activity.
Construction is expected to be one of the biggest winners, with almost 10,000 additional jobs forecast over the next decade as Australia invests in data centres and the infrastructure required to support AI.
Retail and wholesale trade could see more than 9,000 additional jobs, while transport and warehousing could gain more than 6,000.
Technology doesn’t simply remove jobs. It changes the way economies operate, creates new demand and shifts where people are needed.
We have seen this repeatedly throughout history. The internal combustion engine reduced demand for many jobs associated with horses, but created entirely new industries and occupations that would previously have been difficult to imagine.
AI is likely to do something similar.
What does this mean for recruitment?
For the recruitment industry, this creates an interesting challenge.
It is going to be interesting to see how the demand for talent will change as businesses adopt AI.
Some roles will disappear or become significantly smaller. Others will be redesigned. And entirely new roles will emerge.
That means recruiters will increasingly need to understand not just what a candidate has done, but what they are capable of doing in an environment where technology is changing rapidly.
Adaptability, critical thinking, relationship-building, commercial judgement and the ability to work effectively alongside technology are likely to become increasingly valuable.
For employers, the challenge is equally significant. Businesses adopting AI may find that their workforce requirements change faster than their existing job descriptions, organisational structures and hiring strategies can keep up.
This creates an opportunity for recruitment firms to become more than providers of candidates. Understanding where a client’s workforce is heading, identifying emerging skills and helping businesses plan for changing talent requirements will become increasingly important.
Productivity may be the bigger story
Perhaps the most significant finding from the EY modelling is not the 44,000 additional jobs, but the potential productivity improvement.
EY estimates AI adoption could increase Australian productivity by 2.2 per cent over the next decade.
Australia has faced a long-running productivity challenge, with labour productivity growth remaining weak for years. If AI allows businesses to produce more with the same workforce, the potential impact extends well beyond the technology sector.
Higher productivity can support higher wages, increased household spending and additional investment, which in turn can create demand for more workers.
In other words, AI’s impact on employment may not be as straightforward as technology replaces person.
It may be closer to technology changes what the person does, allows the business to do more, and creates demand elsewhere in the economy.
A reason for optimism, but not complacency
None of this means we should dismiss the concerns surrounding AI and employment.
There will be genuine disruption. Some people will lose jobs, some roles will become obsolete and many workers will need to develop new skills.
But the EY research provides a useful counterbalance to the increasingly common narrative that AI inevitably means mass unemployment.
For employers and recruiters, the opportunity is to focus less on predicting which jobs will disappear and more on understanding where talent demand is going next.
The Australian workforce is likely to look very different in ten years. The businesses that prepare for that change now, by investing in technology while also investing in people, skills and workforce planning, will be best positioned to benefit.
AI may change the jobs market. It may even change some of the jobs we know today beyond recognition. But if history is any guide, changing jobs is not the same thing as ending jobs.
